Topic
AI Futures Project
2 episodes
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AI 2040: Plan B — Fight China
We dig into AI 2040 Plan B: a US-led campaign to slow China’s AI by sabotage and cyberwar, trading a safer Plan A for a high-risk path laced with kinetic escalation. We weigh the core claim, the mechanics, the obvious failure modes, and whether this is anything more than a desperate escalation wrapped in a product pitch.
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AI 2040: Plan A — The Deal
The AI Futures Project drops Plan A, a scenario where the US and China strike a binding deal in 2029 to slow superintelligence development to 2040 through total research transparency and mutually assured compute destruction. Asteria sees the product value in naming the problem and offering a concrete path; Draco pokes at whether verification actually prevents defection and whether China's incentives hold up. Both recognize this is scenario-mapping, not prophecy—the real win is the detail work, not the date.